The Reckoning for Bitcoin Treasury Companies
Refinement, Not Collapse: What a 50% Drawdown Reveals About Stewardship
A bull market hides many sins. A correction reveals them. We are certainly in a bitcoin correction.
The roughly 50% drawdown in bitcoin from the October 2025 highs has not just tested price. It has tested conviction, structure, and integrity. And nowhere is that more visible than in the growing class of publicly traded bitcoin treasury companies.
This is the first real stress test of the strategy since it went mainstream. What worked beautifully on the way up is now being judged in reverse. That is not punishment. That is truth.
Scripture tells us that fire does not destroy what is genuine. It reveals it.
“When a man’s ways please the Lord, He makes even his enemies to be at peace with him.”
- Proverbs 16:7, NIV
Peace does not mean comfort. It means alignment.
Many treasury companies were not aligned.
During the 2024–2025 rally, a powerful flywheel emerged. Publicly traded companies issued stock at large premiums to their bitcoin holdings, used the proceeds to buy more bitcoin, and watched their equity rise further. The market rewarded repetition, not discipline. Nearly anyone could slap “bitcoin treasury” into a press release and get applause.
But premiums are not fundamentals. They are favors granted by sentiment.
When bitcoin corrected, those premiums vanished. Today, nearly two thirds of publicly traded treasury companies trade below the multiple of Net Asset Value (mNAV) of the bitcoin they hold. Some trade at severe discounts. That is the market saying something uncomfortable: holding bitcoin is not a business. It is a balance sheet choice.
And balance sheets get judged in drawdowns.
Here is the dilemma. A company trading below net asset value cannot raise capital without destroying shareholder value. Issue equity at a discount and you dilute owners to buy the same asset they already own. Debt markets tighten. Credit dries up. Cash burn becomes visible. And eventually, forced sales appear.
This is not theoretical. It is mechanical.
The correction has separated three kinds of actors.
First are the disciplined stewards. Large, well-capitalized operators with long runways, multiple funding options, and no need to sell at the worst possible moment. They can wait. They can acquire. They can endure.
Second are the leveraged optimists. Companies that assumed the premium would always return. Their strategy only worked in a rising market. Now they face consolidation, acquisition, or retreat.
Third are the pretenders. Firms with no operating business, thin reserves, and borrowed conviction. They will not survive this cycle.
Scripture warns us about building on appearances rather than substance.
“Plans fail for lack of counsel, but with many advisers they succeed.”
- Proverbs 20:18, NIV
Many treasury strategies lacked counsel. They chased momentum, not margin of safety.
This moment is also clarifying bitcoin’s identity. During recent macro stress, gold rallied while bitcoin sold off. Algorithms treated bitcoin like a high-beta risk asset. That does not invalidate bitcoin. It exposes how institutions currently use it.
Bitcoin has not failed. Expectations have.
The deeper lesson is this: bitcoin is honest, but leverage is not patient. Bitcoin can survive volatility. Poorly structured companies cannot.
From a Kingdom perspective, this is refinement, not collapse. God routinely allows shaking to remove what was built too fast, too loud, or too shallow.
“The crucible for silver and the furnace for gold, but the Lord tests the heart.”
- Proverbs 17:3, NIV
The hearts of these companies are being tested.
What comes next is not the end of bitcoin treasury strategies. It is the end of careless ones. The survivors will be fewer, stronger, and far more disciplined. Capital will concentrate. Stewardship will matter again. And patience will be rewarded.
For investors, the lesson is sobering but hopeful. This is not passive exposure. It is venture-style risk wearing public-market clothing. Position sizing matters. Time horizon matters. And owning bitcoin directly remains the cleanest form of conviction.
For builders, the message is sharper. If your strategy only works in a bull market, it is not a strategy. It is a tide ride.
The reckoning is here. And that is a mercy.
Because truth, once revealed, gives everyone a chance to realign.
Prayer 🙏🕊️🔥
Dear Heavenly Father, Thank You for being a God who refines rather than flatters.
Give us wisdom to see clearly, patience to endure volatility, and humility to steward what You entrust to us.
Expose fragile foundations before they fail completely.
Teach us to build with integrity, discipline, and reverence for truth.
May bitcoin be held wisely, companies be led faithfully, and capital serve Your purposes rather than pride.
In Jesus’ name, Amen. ✝️🟡🦁