2025 Review | 2025 Was Not the Year People Think It Was

When All-Time Highs Masked a Test of Conviction

As 2025 comes to a close, the dominant feeling around bitcoin is not celebration. It is confusion. For many, it even feels like disappointment. Returns appear muted relative to expectation, volatility feels heavier than reward, and the year ends not with fireworks but with fatigue. That reaction is understandable especially because bitcoin entered this year carrying enormous anticipation.

Bitcoin began 2025 at $94,443.52, already elevated, already widely held, already burdened with expectation. The four-year cycle narrative loomed large. Halving behind us. Post-halving year ahead. The pattern felt familiar, almost comfortable: accumulation, breakout, acceleration. For the first three quarters, bitcoin appeared to be honoring that script. Price trended higher. Liquidity improved. Institutional participation deepened. Conviction quietly rebuilt.

Then, on October 6, 2025, bitcoin did exactly what the cycle faithful had been waiting for. It printed a new all-time high of $126,210.50 (33.6% increase).

And then something unexpected happened.

Instead of euphoria, the market stalled. Instead of acceleration, endurance was required. The breakout did not usher in instant prosperity. It ushered in pressure. What should have felt like arrival instead became a prolonged test of stamina. This is where many misread 2025 entirely. They assumed the year was about payoff. It was not. It was about proving who was prepared to carry responsibility once the payoff appeared.

On the surface, 2025 still looks bullish. Dollar-denominated all-time highs. ETFs absorbing supply with historically low redemption pressure. Treasury adoption expanding quietly through balance sheets rather than headlines. But beneath that surface, a deeper truth emerged.

Measured against gold, bitcoin lost purchasing power during 2025. This unsettled many observers, especially those accustomed to bitcoin’s historical dominance. Yet perspective matters. Since bitcoin’s inception in 2009, it has outperformed gold in 14 of its 17 years of existence, delivering a cumulative return measured in millions of percent, while gold’s return over the same period sits in the low hundreds of percent. Bitcoin’s long-term supremacy has not been erased. It has been interrupted.

That distinction matters.

Periods where bitcoin underperforms gold have historically coincided with transitions, moments where speculation gives way to structure. These are the seasons where impatience is punished, leverage is exposed, and ownership quietly changes hands.

On-chain data throughout 2025 confirms this pattern. Long-term holders distributed meaningfully during the year. Whale balances declined. Previously dormant supply re-entered circulation. This was not fear-driven capitulation. It was transfer. Early conviction met late expectation. Those who needed immediate validation handed supply to those willing to endure ambiguity.

That is why 2025 was not a failure year.
It was a transfer year.

Every monetary system that survives long enough must pass through this phase. Early cycles reward belief. Later cycles reward discipline. In between sits a season where excitement no longer sustains conviction and understanding becomes the price of admission. 2025 was that season for bitcoin.

This also explains the psychological pain many felt. “Number go up” without felt prosperity creates cognitive dissonance. It forces participants to confront whether they were chasing outcome or stewarding truth. Maturation almost always feels like disappointment when viewed through a speculative lens.

Despite this pressure, bitcoin did not fracture. Despite one of the largest futures deleveraging events in its history, despite macro uncertainty, despite global systems addicted to leverage, bitcoin held. Quietly. Structurally. That resilience matters far more than whether a calendar year ends green or red.

“For we live by faith, not by sight.” - 2 Corinthians 5:7

Walking by sight in 2025 meant anchoring to cycles, charts, and expectations. Walking by faith meant studying structure, supply, liquidity, and patience. One path produced anxiety. The other produced preparation.

History will likely remember 2025 more kindly than it felt while living through it. Transfer years rarely feel victorious. They lack the drama of euphoric tops and the clarity of violent crashes. But they are the years where foundations are laid, excess is removed, and futures are earned.

Bitcoin did not prove it could excite the crowd in 2025.
It proved it could endure maturation.

That distinction will matter.

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Prayer

Father God 🙏
Thank You for seasons that refine rather than reward immediately 🔥.
Give us discernment when excitement fades and endurance is required 👀.
Strip away illusion where it has crept in, and anchor our trust in truth alone ✝️.
Teach us to walk by faith, not by sight, especially when outcomes feel delayed ⏳.
Prepare us to steward what You are building, not just celebrate what is visible 🌱.
We trust You in the waiting, knowing You are always at work.
Amen 🙌